Your Ultimate Guide to IB Predicted Grades
Let's talk about one of the most important—and often most stressful—parts of your IB journey: your Predicted Grades (PGs). Think of them as your teachers' professional forecast of your final exam scores. They are absolutely crucial, especially because they're what universities see long before your actual results are out, and thus determine your university journey. Understanding how they work is the first step to making them work for you.
This guide will show you:
- How your teachers calculate your predicted grades (it's surprisingly not a mystery!).
- Why PGs are the key that unlocks university offers, especially in the UK and Europe.
- How to have a productive conversation with your teachers about your predictions.
Part 1: How Are Your Predicted Grades Determined?
There isn't a single magic formula for calculating PGs. Instead, your teachers use their professional judgment, based on a whole range of evidence they've collected throughout your time in the DP, and provide these predictions. It’s a holistic look at your performance, as well as your potential.
Mock Exams
This is often the heavyweight assessment. Mocks closely replicate the real exam, testing not only what you know, but how well you perform under pressure. A strong mock exam result is one of the best predictors of a high predicted grade.
Internal Assessments (IAs)
Your IAs are a massive indicator of your capabilities. Since they count towards your final grade, the quality of your drafts and your final submission heavily influences your teacher's prediction.
Consistent Performance
It's the small assessments that quietly add up. Quizzes, essays and assignments show your progress and discipline over time. Consistency is what sets top students apart.
Core Components & Engagement
Extended essay (EE) and TOK are also important components that show your progression throughout the year, along with your active participation in class. All of these build the overall picture of you as a student which is then reflected through your predicted grades.
The Lanterna Tip: While it varies, some schools might informally weight subjects differently. For example, Group 1 & 2 (Languages) might have a 50/50 split between assessments and coursework, whereas Group 3-5 (Humanities, Sciences, Maths) might lean more heavily on assessments (like 80/20). The big takeaway? Your mock exams carry serious weight across the board.
Part 2: The University Application Lifeline
Predicted grades are issued towards the end of DP1 or the start of DP2, perfectly timed for university application season. For many systems, they are the single most important academic metric that admissions officers use to assess you.
Conditional Offers Explained
Universities, particularly in the UK, use your PGs to make "conditional offers". This means they offer you a place on the condition that you achieve specific final IB scores. For example:
"Offer: 38 points overall with 7, 6, 6 in Higher Level subjects."
Your predicted grades need to be at or above this level to even be in the running for such an offer.
How Different Regions Use Your PGs
| United Kingdom (UK) | Europe | USA & Canada |
|---|
| Absolutely critical. Your UCAS application is built around your PGs. They are the primary basis for conditional offers from all universities, including Oxbridge and other top institutions. Early applications for medicine or Oxbridge rely on them entirely. | Very Important, but it varies. Many top European universities use PGs for conditional offers. However, in countries like Germany or the Netherlands, the final grade can sometimes hold more weight. For international applicants, PGs are always a key part of your file. | Important piece of the puzzle. In North America, applications are reviewed holistically. Your PGs are considered alongside your transcripts, essays, extracurriculars, and recommendations. |
Part 3: The Strategic Conversation: Talking to Your Teachers
Discussing your PGs with a teacher can feel daunting, but it's a necessary step especially if you feel a prediction doesn't reflect your full potential. The key to this discussion is to approach it as a strategic, evidence-based conversation, not a confrontation with your teacher.
Step 1: Before the Meeting - Do Your Homework
- Self-Assess: Honestly review your work. Look at your mock results, IA drafts, and test scores. Where are you strong? Where can you improve?
- Gather Evidence: Collect specific examples of your best work—a high-scoring essay, a project you're proud of, evidence of recent improvement.
- Know Your Goals: Research the typical IB requirements for the universities and courses you're targeting. This gives you a concrete goal to discuss. ("My target course requires a 6 in HL Physics...")
Step 2: During the Meeting - Be Professional
Schedule a specific time to talk; don't just catch your teacher in a busy hallway, but rather ask them for a one-to-one meeting.
Use these talking points as a guide:
- Start with your Goal: "I'm applying for courses that often require a [target grade] in this subject, and I wanted to discuss what I can do to demonstrate that I'm on track to achieve that."
- Present Your Evidence: "I was really pleased with my progress on the latest mock exam, where I improved in [X area]. I believe this shows my potential to reach a [target grade]."
- Ask for Specific Feedback: "What specific areas do you think I need to strengthen to solidify a prediction of [target grade]?" or "From your perspective, what is the main gap between my current work and a level 7 performance?"
- Create an Action Plan: Work together to define the next steps. This could be focusing on a specific exam technique, re-doing a topic test, or improving the analysis in your IA.
Step 3: After the Meeting - Follow Through
This is the most important part. If you agreed on an action plan, execute it flawlessly. Show your teacher that you are committed and that their higher prediction is justified. Your effort following this conversation can make all the difference.
Go after your predicted grades with confidence - you've earned the right to aim high and you have everything you need to achieve the grades you dream of!
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