IB Predicted Grades Demystified: Your Ultimate Guide

Let's focus on one of the most stressful parts of DP2: predicted grades. It can feel like your academic future is being decided by a number your teacher comes up with months before you even sit the final exams. And while they are definitely important, they aren't the final word on your ability or your university prospects.

Think of this guide as a conversation with your tutor. We're going to break down exactly what predicted grades are, how they're decided, and most importantly, what you should do to influence them (and how to react if they’re not what you hoped for).

Part 1: What's the Big Deal with Predicted Grades?

Simply put, a predicted grade is your teacher's professional, evidence-based estimate of the final grade you'll achieve in their subject. Because most university applications are due long before your final IB exams, these predictions are often the main academic data universities use to assess you.

• University Admissions: This is the big one. In many countries, universities use predicted grades to gauge if a student is a good academic fit for their courses.
• Conditional Offers: For many universities, especially in the UK and Europe, your offer will be "conditional" on you achieving a certain score following your final exams. Predicted grades are what get you that conditional offer in the first place.
• Academic Feedback: They act as a crucial check-in, showing you where you're tracking and which subjects might need more focus before the final push.

How Universities See Your Predictions: A Global Snapshot

Not all universities treat predicted grades the same way. It's crucial to know how your target region views them.

Part 2: The Formula: How Are Your Predicted Grades Calculated?

It is really important to realise that your teachers don't actually pick a number out of thin air. They act like detectives, gathering evidence from your entire time in the DP. Schools have to report predicted grades to the IB and they are monitored. So, a school's goal is to be as accurate as possible, and teachers therefore base their judgment on a few key pieces of evidence:

Part 3: The Game Plan: How to Positively Influence Your Predictions

Okay, so you're not a passive bystander in this process. You have agency. Here’s how to build a strong case for the grades you want:

• Start Your IAs Early: Don't leave them to the last minute. Give yourself time to draft, get feedback, and refine your work, asking verbal questions along the way. A polished IA is a guaranteed way to impress.
• Create a Medium-Term Mock Exam Revision Plan: Work backwards from your mock exam dates. Complete past papers under timed conditions and ask for the markschemes for review. Identify your weak spots and tackle them head-on. Don't just cram.
• Communicate with Your Teachers: If you're struggling with a topic, ask for help. If you want to know how to improve, ask for specific feedback. This shows initiative and a desire to succeed.
• Sweat the Small Stuff: Hand in homework on time. Prepare for your regular class tests. Consistency builds trust and demonstrates you're a serious student.
• Use AI Wisely: This is where AI can be a real game-changer: use prompts that ask it to coach you through your revision.

Part 4: "I'm Not Happy With My Predictions"—What Now?

It can be a gut punch to receive a predicted grade that’s lower than what you 'need' or what you feel you deserve. It's okay to be disappointed, but it's not the end of the road. Here is a productive, step-by-step approach to handle it.

1. Stay Calm and Avoid Pleading: Your teacher has made a professional judgment based on evidence. Approaching them emotionally or demanding a change disresepects their position and will not lead to a constructive conversation.
2. Schedule a Meeting: Ask for a 15-minute meeting to discuss your grade. This is organised, respectful of their time, and shows you are taking this seriously.
3. Come Prepared with Evidence: Gather any recent tests, strong essays, or an improved IA draft to support your case. The goal is to be able to make a case that your recent performance suggests a higher potential than your past record.
4. Ask the Right Question: Instead of "Can you please change my grade?", the question MUST be: "What evidence would I need to show you over the next few weeks to give you the confidence to reconsider my prediction before the final deadline?" This transforms the conversation from a confrontation into a collaboration, and shows that you take your own responsibilities seriously.
5. Focus on the Final Exams: This is the most important step. A predicted grade is an estimate. Your final exam is a fact. Universities, especially if you narrowly miss a conditional offer, will look at your final results. Outperforming your prediction is the ultimate proof of your ability. Use a disappointing grade as fuel to power your revision.