The Importance of IB Predicted Grades
Learn how your IB predicted grades are calculated using mocks and IAs. Understand their crucial role for university offers and get expert tips for discussing them with teachers.
Your Ultimate Guide to IB Predicted Grades
Let's talk about one of the most important—and often most stressful—parts of your IB journey: your Predicted Grades (PGs). Think of them as your teachers' professional forecast of your final exam scores. They are absolutely crucial, especially because they're what universities see long before your actual results are out. Understanding how they work is the first step to making them work for you.
This guide will show you:
- How your teachers calculate your predicted grades (it's not a mystery!).
- Why PGs are the key that unlocks university offers, especially in the UK and Europe.
- How to have a productive conversation with your teachers about your predictions.
Part 1: How Are Your Predicted Grades Determined?
There isn't a single magic formula for calculating PGs. Instead, your teachers use their professional judgment, based on a whole range of evidence they've collected throughout your time in the DP. It’s a holistic look at your performance and potential.
Mock Exams
This is often the heavyweight champion. Mocks are designed to simulate the real thing, testing your knowledge, time management, and performance under pressure. A strong mock exam result is one of the best pieces of evidence for a high predicted grade.
Internal Assessments (IAs)
Your IAs are a massive indicator of your capabilities. Since they count towards your final grade, the quality of your drafts and your final submission heavily influences your teacher's prediction.
Consistent Performance
All those smaller tests, quizzes, essays, and assignments matter. They build a picture of your understanding and work ethic over time. Consistency is key here.
Core Components & Engagement
Your progress on the Extended Essay (EE) and TOK, along with your active participation in class, also feeds into the overall picture. Teachers notice your effort and intellectual curiosity.
Part 2: The University Application Lifeline
Predicted grades are issued towards the end of DP1 or the start of DP2, perfectly timed for university application season. For many systems, they are the single most important academic metric admissions officers use to assess you.
Conditional Offers Explained
Universities, particularly in the UK, use your PGs to make "conditional offers". This means they offer you a place on the condition that you achieve specific final IB scores. For example:
"Offer: 38 points overall with 7, 6, 6 in Higher Level subjects."
Your predicted grades need to be at or above this level to even be in the running for such an offer.
How Different Regions Use Your PGs
| United Kingdom (UK) | Europe | USA & Canada |
|---|---|---|
| Absolutely critical. Your UCAS application is built around your PGs. They are the primary basis for conditional offers from all universities, including Oxbridge and other top institutions. Early applications for medicine or Oxbridge rely on them entirely. | Very Important, but varies. Many top European universities use PGs for conditional offers. However, in countries like Germany or the Netherlands, the final grade can sometimes hold more weight. For international applicants, PGs are always a key part of your file. | Important piece of the puzzle. In North America, applications are reviewed holistically. Your PGs are considered alongside your transcripts, essays, extracurriculars, and recommendations. They show your academic trajectory and potential. |
Part 3: The Strategic Conversation: Talking to Your Teachers
Discussing your PGs with a teacher can feel daunting, but it's a necessary step if you feel a prediction doesn't reflect your potential. The key is to approach it as a strategic, evidence-based conversation, not a confrontation.
Step 1: Before the Meeting - Do Your Homework
- Self-Assess: Honestly review your work. Look at your mock results, IA drafts, and test scores. Where are you strong? Where can you improve?
- Gather Evidence: Collect specific examples of your best work—a high-scoring essay, a project you're proud of, evidence of recent improvement.
- Know Your Goals: Research the typical IB requirements for the universities and courses you're targeting. This gives you a concrete goal to discuss. ("My target course requires a 6 in HL Physics...")
Step 2: During the Meeting - Be Professional
Schedule a specific time to talk; don't just catch your teacher in a busy hallway. Use these talking points as a guide:
- Start with your Goal: "I'm applying for courses that often require a [target grade] in this subject, and I wanted to discuss what I can do to demonstrate that I'm on track to achieve that."
- Present Your Evidence: "I was really pleased with my progress on the latest mock exam, where I improved in [X area]. I believe this shows my potential to reach a [target grade]."
- Ask for Specific Feedback: "What specific areas do you think I need to strengthen to solidify a prediction of [target grade]?" or "From your perspective, what is the main gap between my current work and a level 7 performance?"
- Create an Action Plan: Work together to define the next steps. This could be focusing on a specific exam technique, re-doing a topic test, or improving the analysis in your IA.
Step 3: After the Meeting - Follow Through
This is the most important part. If you agreed on an action plan, execute it flawlessly. Show your teacher through your actions and improved work that you are committed and that their higher prediction is justified. Your effort following this conversation can make all the difference.
Hi, I’m Manmohini, an IB graduate with 40 points, now studying International Relations and Global Affairs in Italy. I earned 7s in HL History and HL English A, along with an A in TOK, and I’ve been tutoring these subjects for around four years. My experience working with organisations like NATO and the United Nations has deepened my understanding of global issues — something I love bringing into my lessons to make learning more relevant and thought-provoking. I focus on helping students see connections between ideas, develop strong essay and critical thinking skills, and approach the IB with confidence and curiosity rather than stress. My lessons are interactive and tailored to each student’s goals, whether that’s improving analysis, refining writing, or mastering exam techniques. I see tutoring as more than academics — it’s about building perspective and empowering students to express themselves clearly while staying balanced.. When I’m not tutoring, you’ll usually find me hiking, playing new music, or planning my next travel adventure.
Why Lanterna?
IB Predicted Grades are your teachers' professional estimates of your final IB exam scores. They are critically important because universities, particularly in the UK and Europe, use them to make conditional offers of admission before your final results are released.
This is a common concern. The best strategy is to demonstrate clear improvement. Focus on acing your mock exams and perfecting your Internal Assessments (IAs), as these are major factors teachers use. A Lanterna tutor can help you create a strategic plan to boost your performance in the areas that matter most, giving your teachers solid evidence to revise their predictions upwards.
Our tutors, who are all expert IB graduates, focus on the key components that influence predictions. We help students master challenging topics, develop exam techniques to excel in mocks, and refine IAs to meet the top-band criteria. By building a strong academic track record, we help you give your teachers every reason to predict a high score.
Yes, in many schools they can. Teachers often finalize predicted grades after major assessments like mock exams. A significant improvement in your performance can lead to a revision. The key is to act strategically and show measurable progress. This is where targeted support can make a huge difference.
It's a free, 20–30 minute online meeting with one of our Student Success Experts. We discuss your specific IB challenges, including concerns about predicted grades, and help you map out a clear plan with priorities and next steps to achieve your academic goals.
Yes, absolutely. The consultation is completely free, and there is no obligation to purchase tutoring. Our primary goal is to provide value and clarity to IB families. You will leave the call with a concrete action plan, whether you choose to work with us further or not.
Our Student Success Experts are IB specialists, many of whom are high-achieving IB graduates themselves. They are not salespeople; they are expert advisors who understand the pressures of the IB. They listen to your needs, help you create a personalised strategy, and can match you with the perfect tutor to help you succeed.
The consultation is for both IB students and parents at any stage of the Diploma Programme. It's particularly useful if you are feeling stressed about university applications, want to improve your grades, or need a clear strategy to manage your workload and hit your predicted grade targets.
You'll receive a summary of your personalised plan. If tutoring is a good fit, your Student Success Expert will recommend a tutor who matches your learning style and goals. There's no pressure to proceed. Our aim is to empower you with a clear path forward to gain confidence and improve your grades.
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